My theory is, there is no theory. They're either going to catch me botting, or they won't. I can try to "smart bot" all I want, but the truth is, I might already be flagged. Even stopping now a week before season end doesn't guarantee a thing. *shrug* I'm either on their poop list or not. Some day I'll probably get the email that nobody wants to ever get, but that's the risk I took when I decided to do it.
I am certainly going to at least try to lessen my ban chances by not immediately botting through the new season, however, if my account makes it that far.