MF Theory and Legendary/Set Pieces - (Tinfoil Hat Theory)

[mginster]

We know this from blue posts and game guides as far as how rolls work, roll precedence is as follows:
- Legendary
- ilvl63 Rare - 6 affix,5,4,3...etc.
- ilvl62 Rare, 61, 60, etc.

So I have a small theory that legendary loot is also broken down.....

- Legendary ilvl63
- Set Items ilvl63
- Tal's
- Immortal
- Etc.
- Legendary 62, set 62, etc.

The reason I say this is because I have two bots, one at MF cap and one at about 150%. The one NOT at cap loots at least DOUBLE the amount of Set items as the capped character, this is over a month of botting both. This would go along with my theory because the higher the MF the more likely you are to get those ilvl 63 rolls rather than sets.......

This is probably just a tinfoil hat theory, but wondering if anyone else noticed this. I noticed it also when my main was leveling up paragon, the set items started dropping off a bit.

 

[Dem]

You do know that the set items are actually legendary items with extra set bonuses, right?

 

[Polyester]

oh its another "I dont understand what random means" thread...
mf does not affect the item level and set items are considered legendary. also, its random.

 

[herbfunk]

Let me try to help theorize this better:

Items generated start very simple, this would be the Item Type.
When an item drops, more than likely it randomly picks from a (group/list/table) generated every X interval.
The exception to this group is that Legendary/Set items show up here.

This conclusion leads to the assumption that Legendary items all have time frames. (When they appear and How Long they appear). Legendary items are time-based which helps distribute common ones, while strictly limiting the availability of the best.

Now onto the item generation...

I imagine the first thing that occurs is your magic find roll, which then is used against the item table to see if you hit something better than just another item, if not then that item type rolls for quality, which ranges from Crap to Rare Quality.

The last step if you hit magical or better quality, is to get maximum attribute count that will spawn, and finally the Affix of each attribute along with the value. Affixs include all the tiers of each individual attribute.

In conclusion, Item generation is very randomized when it comes to non-legendary items. And time is the biggest factor in when a legendary drops.

Of course we will never know until someone inside leaks the truth!

 

[alfajr]

I've been botting multiple accounts from the start and it wouldnt surprise me at all if blizzard is fiddling with the numbers behind the scenes to some degree. Some legendaries drop more then others, and the common ones seems to change with with every patch and sometimes hotfixes. I wish their was a program to compile all the loot data I have/had.

 

[Polyester]

I've been botting multiple accounts from the start and it wouldnt surprise me at all if blizzard is fiddling with the numbers behind the scenes to some degree. Some legendaries drop more then others, and the common ones seems to change with with every patch and sometimes hotfixes. I wish their was a program to compile all the loot data I have/had.

why? so you can try to prove some kind of conspiracy theory that blizzard are altering drops? who even cares.. at the end of the day the drops you get are completely RANDOM.

 

[jubisman]

All I know is that I find at least one fucking hellrack a day with only one bot
Fire walkers every couple of days, too

Set chest armors I never find though

 

[jakieb]

why? so you can try to prove some kind of conspiracy theory that blizzard are altering drops? who even cares.. at the end of the day the drops you get are completely RANDOM.

Dude, you know it's not your job to inform people about what random means right? I have seen you multiple times just reply RNG!!!!!!!!! (paraphrasing) in multiple topics. If people want to theorize let them theorize, you don't know how Blizzard works with drops other then them using an ambiguous explanation that involves the word random.

Let the tin foil hats, tin foil hat.

EDIT:

Personally I think characters are assigned random loot tables (which changes over a certain period of time, which is probably random)with random drops from the table. Just my two cents, it's all random, but randomly within the realm of your randomly assigned loot table. Is that random enough?

 

[sakusa]

why do people always try to find "a linear system" in a "random system"

sure there are more common drops like ivory tower or bla bla...

sure tal or king armor are not that common as pus spitter but that is just dropchance related and not explained by any not random based droprule.

drops work almost the same like in d2
except that there is no difference between a certain mob and a boss in case of droptables.

- droptables in general are just affected by difficulty
- mf highers ur chance to get a blue, yellow, set, legendary
for example 200mf grant you 20% more chance to get a blue, 10% for a yellow, and 2% for a set/legendary (just guessing the numbers no exact stats for that)
- bosses, champs, uniques, named do have a higher chance / are guaranted to drop a blue / yellow
- nv stacks grant you extra chances on drops / quality
- some legendaries / set items will drop more frequent than others because they have a higher drop chance

mf does not affect the rolled stats nor does it affect which item drop (you will not get a better immortal king vs. ivory tower drop ratio with 300mf than with 30mf)


and of course in the end it is just random!

if during a roulette game there is a series of 12 black numbers rolled before a red number rolls, it does not mean that the chance to get a black number increased to 80% or whatever it is still 48,x % and what colour rolls next is still random!

get it finally guys, all these tin foil drop conspiracies are boring for real


i mean one of my bots is currently finding more items than another one (same paragon, same class, nearly same dps) if i would be some of these tinfoil guys i would now try to find the code within the character name that is causing the better loot on of of them... if this trend will last for the next year i will do maybe but just because i found twice the amount of "good" items on one bot than on the other one for a couple of days there is no need to try to explain such a phenomenon because

this is spartaaaaa!

arghhh sorry i mean this is randooooom!

edit:

if there is really such a big ignorant community here that will try to find the matrix code behind all the drops, then please make ONE thread like the "item price check" thread and discuss your "illuminati infiltrated battle.net" topics there. Do not open up multiple threads each day which annoy the people - who are here to check for updates or improve their botting - with this unnecessary threads.

edit 2:

and to answer the initial post aswell, i do find more sets and legendaries on my higher mf chars than on the lower mf ones, amount of dropped set items does not decrease with higher mf for me.
so at least i do not share your "system"

 

[alfajr]

I have a MBA, i think my knowledge of statistics and linear algebra far exceeds yours. I don't need your retarted kindergarden level probability lesson, so have fun with your roulette wheel alone in the closet please. This thread clearly isn't for you.

I also think "somthing" is going on behind the scenes that hasn't been mentioned by blizzard. Nobody is pretending to know exectly what that "somthing" is and neither do I, but I do think they are making unofficial changes.

 

[Erson]

I have a MBA, i think my knowledge of statistics and linear algebra far exceeds yours. I don't need your retarted kindergarden level probability lesson, so have fun with your roulette wheel alone in the closet please. This thread clearly isn't for you.

I also think "somthing" is going on behind the scenes that hasn't been mentioned by blizzard. Nobody is pretending to know exectly what that "somthing" is and neither do I, but I do think they are making unofficial changes.

Unless you have some inside information)

 

[DavidKDean]

I find it funny that I've seen multiple people give names of items they have gotten a thousand time. Lets take Hellrack. Out of 6 bots that I have. I've gotten 1. Thats it. Stormcrow. 2. MBA? If you have an MBA (and I'm not saying you don't) your forgetting your first rule of statistics. Test pool!

Lets look at this in the scope that it should be looked in. Lets say your running 6 bots. Every single one of them get a Hellrack a day. Thats 6 Hellracks a day for a total of 42 a week. Now lets take me. I've gotten 1 from 6 in the time span of a week (Thats actually total as well). So out of 12 bots thats 43 in a week. Out of our testing we can conclude that its % is slightly above 50% now.

(Why these numbers. Ofc 50% isn't the drop rate for Hellrack. This was to explain that your 100% was diluted by my nearly 0% drop chance.)

The problem with all of these tinfoil hat threads is that your only taking what you get and trying to pull magic numbers from your asses. Take EVERY drop in the game from EVERYONE. Thats where your magic number will be. But. To give credit. We already know they "tweak" numbers. We know they can limit the amount of legendary items that can drop. The problem is not the name of the item. But the stats!

 

[sakusa]

I have a MBA, i think my knowledge of statistics and linear algebra far exceeds yours. I don't need your retarted kindergarden level probability lesson, so have fun with your roulette wheel alone in the closet please. This thread clearly isn't for you.

I also think "somthing" is going on behind the scenes that hasn't been mentioned by blizzard. Nobody is pretending to know exectly what that "somthing" is and neither do I, but I do think they are making unofficial changes.

hey mr omnipotent, like to see you commenting my comment....not!

first of you did not grab one of my posted details to drops at all to counter them,
you just say you have a MBA and thats the point of discussion then?!
great you did not learned much during your education when it comes to "discussion skills"

second, i am on my 5th year at university right know and i had 2 courses statistics so far,
so if you want to discuss deeper about gaussian distribution or random distribution in closed and open pools, with recline and without, let me know.

third, because i know that is your next "powerful" argument you will come with, i made more money the first 3 weeks with immortal than you are posting you made in total botting D3 - i just do not care about it and take it as a "i know how to bot and everything else better than you all" argument.

and last, i think this community clearly is not for you, because you are so way uber all of us and not only in one way - no you are uber in any way, any thread and any topic - so please do your uber genius talk with yourself, since you will be the only one in the world matching your skills and be able to held a discussion with your brain, in your closet!

after all your first (and only) comment in this thread just said "some legendarys do drop more frequent than others"
wake up dude - i said the same but you attacked me anyway...
and to grab up the roulette thingy again, i just try to make it understandable by anyone and not bully around with possible omnipotence and comments which clearly lack content.

and the very last word, if you (would really) understand statistics it must be clear to you from the start that finding at least a partial rule behind these "random" drops is totaly not possible by the relative small amount of results anyone gets by hisself compared to the possible various outcome (drops) we have here. But i guess you almost finished to discover the exact droprule-algorhythm used by blizzard with all your skill, oh and that was sarcasm mr. sheldon cooper.

so i say good bye to this discussion now, since it is pointless (for me) and also say goodbye to you mr. knowledge with the words another user allready sent to you "i never got that low on forums"

 

[medavid16]

lol that was hilarious