Market prediction: Stockpile gold or spend it now?

[Kuat]

Forgive me if this seems silly, but wouldn't a massive loot boost lower what items are worth, because more people will be able to find them more easily?

Yes and the prices in gold for these items will drop.

 

[petrieslastword]

Yes and the prices in gold for these items will drop.

But won''t what they are worth drop as well? So what does it matter?

 

[jack99]

Yes and the prices in gold for these items will drop.

I am hoping this happens as well. Starting to stockpile and transfer my gold tonight.


I do also hope that we DB owners will not be part of the next ban wave. If we come out alive and well, hats off to DB devs!

 

[SkyCrown]

Most including myself, do not realize the importance of today's ruling by the Korean Government. And its effect on Buzzard/Diablo/users. Over 80% of all servers for Diablo Asia were located in Korea, up until today's new law passed. 5 yr jail time and up to 43,000 fine if caught trading - buying or selling virtual items - and or botting.

Has the 80% server location changed, you bet it is well under way as of today.
How will this have an effect on the economy, gold supply and demand, with 80% of Asia funneling through Korea?
All we have is speculation at this point. Rest assured, those servers are in the process of being relocated as of today for all of Asia.

These are the kind of events one will want to look for, if one wants to ride the wave verses under it. Some provide an opportunity and others never come to fruition. Need to keep looking out of the normal channels for the details most of us would pass off as irrelevant.

http://www.thebuddyforum.com/demonb...ine-virtual-item-trading-5-yearjail-time.html

 

[Chalky]

Most including myself, do not realize the importance of today's ruling by the Korean Government. And its effect on Buzzard/Diablo/users. Over 80% of all servers for Diablo Asia were located in Korea, up until today's new law passed. 5 yr jail time and up to 43,000 fine if caught trading - buying or selling virtual items - and or botting.

Has the 80% server location changed, you bet it is well under way as of today.
How will this have an effect on the economy, gold supply and demand, with 80% of Asia funneling through Korea?
All we have is speculation at this point. Rest assured, those servers are in the process of being relocated as of today for all of Asia.

These are the kind of events one will want to look for, if one wants to ride the wave verses under it. Some provide an opportunity and others never come to fruition. Need to keep looking out of the normal channels for the details most of us would pass off as irrelevant.

http://www.thebuddyforum.com/demonb...ine-virtual-item-trading-5-yearjail-time.html

What exactly do you think the impications of this are? Are you saying there will be an influx of botters on the NA server? A reduction in the amount of players?

 

[jack99]

What exactly do you think the impications of this are? Are you saying there will be an influx of botters on the NA server? A reduction in the amount of players?

80% of Asian servers are in Korea. I don't think this will have any implications for NA users as long as those servers aren't brought here.

 

[Chalky]

80% of Asian servers are in Korea. I don't think this will have any implications for NA users as long as those servers aren't brought here.

Even if they are im not sure of why that matters. Is he saying that more warden servers will be operating? Will lag issues be better? Im not getting it.

 

[sahal]

Most including myself, do not realize the importance of today's ruling by the Korean Government. And its effect on Buzzard/Diablo/users. Over 80% of all servers for Diablo Asia were located in Korea, up until today's new law passed. 5 yr jail time and up to 43,000 fine if caught trading - buying or selling virtual items - and or botting.

Has the 80% server location changed, you bet it is well under way as of today.
How will this have an effect on the economy, gold supply and demand, with 80% of Asia funneling through Korea?
All we have is speculation at this point. Rest assured, those servers are in the process of being relocated as of today for all of Asia.

These are the kind of events one will want to look for, if one wants to ride the wave verses under it. Some provide an opportunity and others never come to fruition. Need to keep looking out of the normal channels for the details most of us would pass off as irrelevant.

http://www.thebuddyforum.com/demonb...ine-virtual-item-trading-5-yearjail-time.html

First of all, they got no RMAH whatsoever, so they are pretty much forced into the grey market. Second of all, they cannot use NA for RMAH either (unless using blackhat techniques). Bottomline: I am happy to live in europe rather than asia.

 

[Kuat]

Most including myself, do not realize the importance of today's ruling by the Korean Government. And its effect on Buzzard/Diablo/users. Over 80% of all servers for Diablo Asia were located in Korea, up until today's new law passed. 5 yr jail time and up to 43,000 fine if caught trading - buying or selling virtual items - and or botting.

Has the 80% server location changed, you bet it is well under way as of today.
How will this have an effect on the economy, gold supply and demand, with 80% of Asia funneling through Korea?
All we have is speculation at this point. Rest assured, those servers are in the process of being relocated as of today for all of Asia.

These are the kind of events one will want to look for, if one wants to ride the wave verses under it. Some provide an opportunity and others never come to fruition. Need to keep looking out of the normal channels for the details most of us would pass off as irrelevant.

http://www.thebuddyforum.com/demonb...ine-virtual-item-trading-5-yearjail-time.html

Does not matter where the servers are. If the botter is living Korea, it's illegal for him to bot (regardless of where the game server is located).

 

[Dakkah]

So does anything think gold will be 100% useless, ala diablo II?

 

[Kuat]

Sounds like it.

With the new patch, the price of items will drop by a lot. There will be a ton of quality gear. The amount of gear in circulation will make the prices drop, and without gold sinks gold will become worthless.

 

[Hellcom]

Forgive me if this seems silly, but wouldn't a massive loot boost lower what items are worth, because more people will be able to find them more easily?

Ehm, they will boost the average power level.

Like, when you start a new character level 1. You have nothing, so anything that drops is an upgrade. Then you get all white gear, so only blues does the trick, then you get all yellow gear, so only better yellows does the trick and so on. The better gear you have the harder it is to find upgrades, so while everyone will recieve an immidiate superpowerboost for the first week. After 3-4 weeks everyone will be looking at the same items again hoping to find worthwhile upgrades.

 

[SkyCrown]

80% of Asian servers are in Korea. I don't think this will have any implications for NA users as long as those servers aren't brought here.

Unless your sitting on stock pile of gold, and Asian buyers come a looking on NA. Will this happen? Already has happened today. Will some move volume at a discount to Asian buyers on NA, already has happened today. Prices have remained pretty much the same here in NA, with some small increases of sale prices, as some sellers realize the demand has increased over the past day.

Found it interesting when that was posted earlier today it barely got one reply, but that is what speculation is all about. Hedging, guessing, placing your bets.

My two cents is it will have minimal effect over all, as Buzzard already started moving servers silently weeks ago. They saw the writing on the wall.

Even now all the internet cafe owners in Korea (thousands) are filing a class action law suit on Buzzard for not having enough server capacity to support all their internet cafe clients. The cafe owners had per-purchased thousands of Diablo III accounts in preparation. And all their clients walked out when their were no servers able to support the influx of clients.

Gold will have its value in Diablo III, at least for the near future. At least for those who have it verses those who do not have it. Epics said it well, supply and demand. When you have to pay 50k per repair in inferno on damaged armor after next patch, that is just one very small example. The haves verses the have not's. Time will tell.

 

[PapaBash]

The goldprice will never recuperate, regardless of banwaves it will go even deeper until blizz fixes it.

 

[GDNguyen]

unlimited supply (virtual items) and limited demand (real people working) = sell your gold/items as it comes. simple economics right?

 

[Dakkah]

Being as this is a game produced by Buzzard, can we not intelligently say that new content will be abundant? I mean, as everyone reaches top tier, blizzard will either have to produce harder content / expansions or lose players. I have never seen blizzard walk away from a cash cow before and they have the potential to make a WHOLE lot more money off this game then WoW with the 15% commodity fees.

As content gets harder, gear gets better, prices go higher, gold retains value?

 

[SkyCrown]

The goldprice will never recuperate, regardless of banwaves it will go even deeper until blizz fixes it.

Agreed, although recuperate to prior levels, may be unrealistic to begin with, as it had zero baseline....and the ones who paid any amount to get that so called edge the first two-three weeks. As in the public stock offering of Facebook, first out sky high, then price dropped. We are now in the baseline period.

 

[Kuat]

To keep gold relevant, Blizzard needs to make all items Bind on Equip.

Otherwise there will be too may pieces of good items without much demand for them.

 

[SkyCrown]

Being as this is a game produced by Buzzard, can we not intelligently say that new content will be abundant? I mean, as everyone reaches top tier, blizzard will either have to produce harder content / expansions or lose players. I have never seen blizzard walk away from a cash cow before and they have the potential to make a WHOLE lot more money off this game then WoW with the 15% commodity fees.

As content gets harder, gear gets better, prices go higher, gold retains value?

Excellent point! AH and RMAH is what the whole future is based on for Buzzard, 15% fee. Once they have sold the game, they have no monthly sub fees as in the old days on Asheron's Call, which was 12.95 per 30 days to play online. So for Buzzard it is all about the AH and RMAH. Their will always be players who refuse to use the RMAH and only chose to use gold and the AH.


Take the very smallest example again. After this next patch, many will be having their go at Inferno III IV again.....but with repair cost being ...lets guess.....increased to 50k per pop, Ten repairs equals what? 500k? etc etc

It is all speculation, may as well have fun with it and hedge your bets.

 

[SkyCrown]

To keep gold relevant, Blizzard needs to make all items Bind on Equip.

Otherwise there will be too may pieces of good items without much demand for them.

That is exactly what Turbine the makers of Asheron's Call did, Bind on Equip.
Everquest and Asheron's Call were the pioneers - pre WOW days 1999 - 2003.

Still remember in 2001 UCLA did a study on Asheron's Call (AC).

Had AC been considered a real world country verses a virtual world. Based on the amount of real life money being made off AC, it would have been ranked number 173 in the real world country list.

In 2000 the highest level Mage character lvl 85 Faze on Frostfell server, sold for over $16,000.00 USD via ebay.

One man interviewed by UCLA study in Idaho, USA. Had created his own auction website for virtual items sold from AC. He earned that year 2.8 million USD, tax free of course, as the tax collector's in 2000/2001 still had not figured out what virtual items meant or how to tax the items.

That was then this is now.

One thing remains the same, the fun of not really knowing what potential awaits around the next corner. And will we be ready for it....