2016 - 2017 bans, to risky to come back?

[prinnyhater1]

Ahh i read his question as how long since last one.

Remember last year 2 ban waves were about 11 days apart, so you cannot tell.

 

[Xparn]

Common time-gap is when the community complains a-lot or major content patches... Like I said above
You are asking for a simple answer to a complex question.

I like your attitude mate, it's like asking 1 + 1 and you gonna say "Hey it's complicated/complex"

After research:
Large WoW Ban Wave on February, 2017
Honorbuddy WoW Ban Wave on November 2016
Honorbuddy WoW Ban Wave on May 2016
Honorbuddy WoW Ban Wave on December 2015

So the answer is: The time gap between the bans since december 2015, has been around 5 months.
Was that to complex for you? It was a simple question.

Again i never asked for what you think or what could happen, i just asked what has been. That is already out there.
Honestly, the question i gave wasn't complex as there is a concrete answer to it. It was you who made it a lot more complex.

 

[ZephyrMMO]

I like your attitude mate, it's like asking 1 + 1 and you gonna say "Hey it's complicated/complex"

After research:
Large WoW Ban Wave on February, 2017
Honorbuddy WoW Ban Wave on November 2016
Honorbuddy WoW Ban Wave on May 2016
Honorbuddy WoW Ban Wave on December 2015

So the answer is: The time gap between the bans since december 2015, has been around 5 months.
Was that to complex for you? It was a simple question.

Again i never asked for what you think or what could happen, i just asked what has been. That is already out there.
Honestly, the question i gave wasn't complex as there is a concrete answer to it. It was you who made it a lot more complex.

The last two banwaves were a result of content patches. Hence why I say the next month is most likely the highest chance for a banwave. The May 2016, December 2015 and the one you missed from Feb 2015 were way more random. And there is not even a trend between those banwaves outside of content patches.

You are trying too hard to just say blizzard will ban us every 6 months so we should only bot for 4 months because a banwave is going to happen... Botting isn't like that and you are setting yourself up for failure with that kind of mindset. It is a constant game of cat and mouse and if you are wasting your time worrying about unavoidable banwaves you should not be botting in the first place.

The simplest answer I can give you is if you are worried about detection banwaves then don't bot within 45 days of a content patch or not at all. (GL figuring out the patch release date that far in advance)

 

[Xparn]

The last two banwaves were a result of content patches. Hence why I say the next month is most likely the highest chance for a banwave. The May 2016, December 2015 and the one you missed from Feb 2015 were way more random. And there is not even a trend between those banwaves outside of content patches.

You are trying too hard to just say blizzard will ban us every 6 months so we should only bot for 4 months because a banwave is going to happen... Botting isn't like that and you are setting yourself up for failure with that kind of mindset. It is a constant game of cat and mouse and if you are wasting your time worrying about unavoidable banwaves you should not be botting in the first place.

The simplest answer I can give you is if you are worried about detection banwaves then don't bot within 45 days of a content patch or not at all. (GL figuring out the patch release date that far in advance)

I'm astonished by your logic, honestly you are taking words and converting them to a fantasy of your own.
Do you even try to take the words as they come?

I'm not trying to be rude, It's kinda amazing how i have time to time pointed out that I'm not after any conclusive answer and yet you consist on pursuing this way of painting me to be some guy who states facts.
Sadly your answers is not directed to me but to another discussion.

About the cat and mouse game, I'm not arguing with you... again you are the one trying to hard to explain how the detection game works. I have no intention of putting myself into that maze as that hole goes to far.
I got myself my answer and i have my own assumption what is good and what is not. If there is statistics that talks then i rather listen to it, and no i don't mean everyone should do that and no i don't suggest there is a date set in stone when the ban will appear. I'm just simply saying that statistics is better to listen to than just simply ignore the time frames.

For you to understand, if something happens once a month and continually to do so, would you in your mind have the assumption that it would happen again next month?
Especially if it's a service or something that is actually maintained. I hope the answer is yes.

Add: I appreciate your answer about the 45 day after patch, though i find statistics more easy to believe in. Thanks.

 

[marrvin]

After intense research on some major bot forums, these were the last 4 ban waves:

Honorbuddy Ban Wave on may 20, 2016
- gap: 174 days -
Large major bots Ban Wave on nov 10, 2016
- gap: 12 days -
Large major bots Ban Wave on nov 22, 2016
- gap: 71 days -
Large major bots Ban Wave on feb 1, 2017

that an average of 85 days between ban waves

so next ban wave will be on April 27, 2017!
oh ..um...wait ...

 

[Xparn]

After intense research on some major bot forums, these were the last 4 ban waves:
so next ban wave will be on April 27, 2017!
oh ..um...wait ...

Exactly, to count 10 days apart as different detection is
Anyway, around 5 month's apart has been the difference between the bans.
Again, (I obviously have to repeat things as people don't take it in at all) I'm not saying that there will be a ban I'm just saying it's safe to say there will be one. Wether it will be within these two month's is up to you to assume, i don't say it will happen. I was just here to get the answer, now people who get butthurt for the answer can go somewhere else and debate wether you should listen/make assumptions to it or not.

Also i want to thank all those who voted in the poll, says a lot. Cheers

 

[marrvin]

Exactly, to count 10 days apart as different detection is

Please read more carefully: I made a list about ban-waves - not about detection.

Anyway, around 5 month's apart has been the difference between the bans.

Yes... Like between end of November and Feb 1st.

Such "bending" of data is common to tinfoil-hat theory crafting.

to answer your questions from your thread-starting post

Will there be a ban-wave sometimes in the future? most likely
When will it be? nobody knows outside Blizzard or can predict a date as there is no ban-wave pattern or common "time-gap". Period.
Is it to risky to get back after a suspension? Yes. Besause there will never be 100% security. If you feel uneasy loosing your account again: DO NOT BOT!

-- marrvin

 

[Xparn]

loosing

-- marrvin

Losing*

And i have read perfectly well, i asked about the timelines between the ban waves and not a single reply from the keyboard warriors over here gave the answer (oh and yes it's a easy answer to it, wether people says it's to "complex" or not)
There is a common timeline between the ban waves for honorbuddy, but whatever floats your boat.
By common i don't mean there is dates set in stone, just statistically a timeline that is common, but it's hard for guys like you to admit it. Kinda wonder why, but whatever.

About it never going to be 100% security, obviously there is no security. Blizzard is pounding Honorbuddy to the ground and it kinda shows by the poor response you get from people on the forum these days. At least i can appreciate the results of the poll. But hell to read the ignorance and the attitude people have here, it kinda freaks me out.
Yes, i will avoid honorbuddy for now thanks.

Tl:dr folk do your own research before asking questions about detections/ban waves here on the forum, you'll understand if you read the replies in this thread.

 

[marrvin]

Losing*

haha yes thank you. That was really important to point out. /facepalm
May be next time you can check your own posts for grammar and spelling errors as well ... there is a lot to find.

If your done with honorbuddy then you can stop insisting that there a "common 5-month time gap" between ban-waves.
Everyone with the smallest math skills can prove you are wrong.

 

[Xparn]

haha yes thank you. That was really important to point out. /facepalm
May be next time you can check your own posts for grammar and spelling errors as well ... there is a lot to find.

If your done with honorbuddy then you can stop insisting that there a "common 5-month time gap" between ban-waves.
Everyone with the smallest math skills can prove you are wrong.

Well define important, for myself it has been a true lesson when people point out when i write words wrong. I've had problems with just that word before, i also tended to write "loose" instead of "lose" when someone had lost for example. People that pointed it out gave me a good lesson which has stayed with me since then.
It was not meant to upset you, yes i probably have grammar problems myself i wouldn't mind if someone give good criticism.

About the common 5 month time gap, let's see:
December 2015 to may 2016 = exactly 5 months
May 2016 to November 2016 = exactly 6 months
November 2016 to February 2017 = exactly 3 months

14 / 3 = 4.66~
So the answer is around 5.
Everyone with the smallest math skills can prove you wrong.

Let's just end this discussion, at this point i find you guys trolling.
Wont reply to nonsense again.

 

[marrvin]

ok lets see with correct dates of last 3 ban waves:

ban wave on may 18, 2017 to ban wave on nov 10, 2016 = 25 weeks
ban wave on nov 10, 2016 to ban bave on nov 22, 2016 = 2 weeks
ban wave on nov 22, 2016 to ban wave on feb 1, 2016 = 10 weeks

37 / 3 = 12.3 weeks ~ 3 month

3 != 5

 

[Xparn]

ok lets see with correct dates of last 3 ban waves:

ban wave on may 18, 2017 to ban wave on nov 10, 2016 = 25 weeks
ban wave on nov 10, 2016 to ban bave on nov 22, 2016 = 2 weeks
ban wave on nov 22, 2016 to ban wave on feb 1, 2016 = 10 weeks

37 / 3 = 12.3 weeks ~ 3 month

3 != 5

So the only different factor you took in was that two weeks differential.
To count something so close to the time of the first wave is basically the same detection, but sure let's keep that and we hold that into account it's still 3 months (even if you are counting an extra wave that was close to 10 days after the first wave which probably is the same detection).

With your answer it's 3 months (and it's debatable) and mine is 5 months, i still feel it's quite easy to say that the time-gap is to small to even risk it even for a week with honorbuddy at this stage as the flagging of accounts probably starts with 2 weeks in forehand of the wave.

 

[marrvin]

With your answer it's 3 months (and it's debatable)

it is not debatable at all. Just look at the number of posts on nov 10 and nov 22 on this very forum:
"everybody" using honorbuddy on and before these dates were banned => that's what we call a ban wave.

The point to keep in mind is:
these numbers means nothing! (as you can see from the variation of the time gaps... 2 weeks, 2 months (the last "gap"), and now nearly 5 months since last wave.
The next ban wave can hit tomorrow or on 1st of July or in three months.
It's not statistics that will decide ... it is when Blizzard successfully hides a detection in a patch that is not revealed by buddy staff.

The only way to minimize getting caught in a ban wave without stop botting completely is to halt botting activities for like 3 weeks after every single wow client patch.
On the other hand: the day you start again some players may report you...

 

[Xparn]

it is not debatable at all.

That's fine, let's not debate about it then.
I will have my assumption and according to the statistics I'm right.
The weather is also based on statistics, however it' doesn't have to be right and that's my point but you don't want to listen.
It will happen, when it will happen no one can say exactly when but you can narrow it down based on the historical statistics and that is the 5 month gap between the ban waves. If you want to prove me otherwise go ahead but you can't, the only thing you have in store for a reply for it is the 10 days delay after a wave that another one took place (which is most likely caused because of the same detection that were 10 days earlier)

But again, as you said you don't want to debate it. It's hard to debate with someone who can't accept that they are wrong or can't change their view even if they could be wrong.
I already stated that nothing is written in stone but you guys keep describing things as i would have decided exactly when the ban wave is coming, which i have not.
I have made an assumption on when it's about to be, all i can do is to avoid to bot as there is no safety as Blizzard obviously can pound their hammer when they want and according to statistics they have decided to wait about 5 months for each wave (Except for the 10 days interval where they waved again and according to me it's because of the same detection not wave).

I don't mind saying that i might be wrong, but you can't say that I'm wrong at least for now you can't as the statistics talk for themselves. At this point it would be fun to see when it happens again if it's 5-6 months after the last one.
It will be interesting to see.

 

[marrvin]

That's fine, let's not debate about it then.

And why do you continue to debate with this lengthy post?
Is it because you cannot stand seeing you theory falling apart?

Your awkward ban wave statistics with hand picked dates that drop dates that doesn't fit in your theroy
(like the 12 day gap in november and the 2 month gap at the turn of the year) makes me smile and reminds me of people believing in chemtrails.

 

[Fulken]

the 5 new update less than month pretty sure they trying to hit it again++

 

[Dialon]

the 5 new update less than month pretty sure they trying to hit it again++

And what do they usually enter large content with a raid and do not make hotfixes to it? I think this has nothing to do with it. It all looks like fortune tellers. Bannhummer will be when he will. There was a wave of bans for buying and selling gaming services for real money. Everything has its time. In the meantime, we enjoy the game and the fact that there is.

 

[Xparn]

Maybe its like fortune-telling or maybe not. I'm here since 2015 may banwave and scheme didnt change since it.

Yep. Yet people are in denial

Let's see the ban wave come again within a month or two, would be funny to look back at this thread at that point

 

[marrvin]

First they release lot of small patches and theres banwave week or maybe two later.

This is excatly how it works ...and not some crystal ball time-gap theories.

Inside these small patches Blizzard's Anti-Bot team tries to sneak in some detection code. If they succeed, everybody that attaches a bot to wow after this patch will be flagged as botter and will be a proud winner of a ban-wave suspension

 

[Xparn]

The history repeats itself – every 6 months apparently – on this Friday the 13th (yup), with a new ban wave, this time for usage of third party software in WoW

Ah i love to have right