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I would hazard a guess that we are looking at a very large number of suspensions/bans. If HB monitors the number of people using active keys and compares that to the number of ban/suspend reports they'll probably be able to know for certain.
Personally, I tend to think that the damage has already been done, so activating Tripwire at this point does little to help. Whatever method Blizz used to spot botters this time was used a while ago. A lot of people (myself included) were banned while offline, so there's a very good chance that this is not a current or ongoing detection, but rather a detection that ran recently and is only now being acted on by Blizzard. Most likely to try to obfuscate their detection method which was bound to be some sort of spy-ware that read what programs were being used in active memory.