6.2 and WoW tokens prediction.

[Macatho]

So 6.2 is around the corner, which brings new gear -but more importantly, stuff to spend gold on. I've seen a 100%-200% increase in customers each time a new raid tier is released which should be reflected exactly the same with WoW tokens.

So this will either confirm or deny that blizzard is buying Tokens themselves to keep prices high (i.e selling gold like any gold seller). I suspect we will at least see a 30% drop in token price 1-2 weeks into 6.2.

 

[Zicoth]

Will stay same more or less, aka +-5%

 

[Macatho]

Will stay same more or less, aka +-5%

Because that would truly follow the demand and supply.
Demand to buy wowtoken for gold is static (does not increase), supply will increase by 100%. And you say that it will stay the same? Love the logic.
Here you go: Supply and demand - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Crowley]

So this will either confirm or deny that blizzard is reimbursing Token purchases themselves to keep prices high. I suspect we will at least see a 30% drop in token price 1-2 weeks into 6.2.

Maybe bad choice of wording "reimbursing Token purchases themselves" "putting tokens up themselves" might make it easier to understand. Either way it's a moot point. Tokens have already dropped and will continue to do so. It's a way to keep gold out of gold sellers/game time sellers hands...and an effective one at that. And that's what this has been all about as far as i can tell. Of course i could be wrong since i love my tin foil hat so much

 

[Altard]

Because that would truly follow the demand and supply.
Demand to buy wowtoken for gold is static (does not increase), supply will increase by 100%. And you say that it will stay the same? Love the logic.
Here you go: Supply and demand - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

30-33k per wow token is what you will see at patch. To say that demand is static is ignorant. Also to say supply will increase by 100% is also ignorant.

You have no idea how many people will buy wow tokens versus illegal gold. Also you have no clue how many people will purchase wow tokens on patch day logging in versus resubbing or having a yearly sub etc.

You also have no idea how many people will come back with 6.2 considering it is probably the biggest patch of WoD yet.

For the past 10 years people have purchased gold illegally in world of warcraft, people that have and have not been banned will continue to do so. Also since illegal gold is twice as cheap will probably continue to do so. Right now you can buy almost 3 months of sub time for 100k with current market prices.

Since you linked a wiki that barely pertains to this here is my wiki link: Heuristics in judgment and decision-making - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Markets are complex and are not much different than living breathing organisms in the sense that you can't just take a pot shot at it and expect to be right. I'd take a look at this wiki too: Behavioral analysis of markets - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

MUCH more goes into it than just supply and demand

 

[Macatho]

30-33k per wow token is what you will see at patch. To say that demand is static is ignorant. Also to say supply will increase by 100% is also ignorant.

You have no idea how many people will buy wow tokens versus illegal gold. Also you have no clue how many people will purchase wow tokens on patch day logging in versus resubbing or having a yearly sub etc.

You also have no idea how many people will come back with 6.2 considering it is probably the biggest patch of WoD yet.

For the past 10 years people have purchased gold illegally in world of warcraft, people that have and have not been banned will continue to do so. Also since illegal gold is twice as cheap will probably continue to do so. Right now you can buy almost 3 months of sub time for 100k with current market prices.

Since you linked a wiki that barely pertains to this here is my wiki link: Heuristics in judgment and decision-making - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Markets are complex and are not much different than living breathing organisms in the sense that you can't just take a pot shot at it and expect to be right. I'd take a look at this wiki too: Behavioral analysis of markets - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

MUCH more goes into it than just supply and demand

And by ignorant you mean basing the idea of actual experience as a gold seller? It's not like I'm pulling these numbers out of a tin foil magic hat.

And yes Demand might shift into less static and actually diminish because people will favor buying that ilvl 730 item over purchasing a wow token.

You don't really need to bringing behavioral analysis for this problem, you might have heard the phrasing "supply and demand" since you were a child and somewhere along the way thought "hmm its probably wrong since I've heard it for so long and its so simple, it must be more complex than that". Well sadly, it is not. The basis for all commerce is supply and demand. Behavioral analysis does not focus on demand and supply but focus on the basis behind "demand". What increases/decreases demand etc...

So a quick behavioral analysis for demand in 6.2 would simple be, excuse my phrasing: "I want dat gear now!".

In the end I am simply basing this theory on the FACT that I get a 100-200% increase in customers that want/need wow gold when there's shit to spend said gold on.

Price for tokens when writing this is roughly 45k on prime time and 35k on down time for EU servers. For US servers it is lower because of obvious reason having to do with supply and demand...again...

Also, linking me the wikipedia of "Heuristics in judgment and decision-making" is fucking rude, and I don't want to bring this post down to name calling and insulting.

 

[Manihack]

I Bought a token for 18k yesterday on US....I bet I will be able to buy one for 15k when 6.2 hit the servers

 

[thatwouldbestealing]

Also, linking me the wikipedia of "Heuristics in judgment and decision-making" is fucking rude, and I don't want to bring this post down to name calling and insulting.

Well I think you're fucking rude. But hey, we're all welcome to our own opinions.

Come patch 6.2, demand will increase *for everything*.

People will be returning to the game after breaks (Heroic, Mythic raiders, casuals) -everyone and their mum will be returning to 6.2 on launch because of reasons. So there's now the Token, great, those people can now have the option to get game time via Gold. Demand. This will increase the Token price and Supply will eventually bring the cost down, but there will be a spike. Just as there is a spike every weekly Reset/lockout in EU.

And yes of course there will be new gear on the market, and people will spending gold on it and -more importantly -people will be buying Boosts. (My guild will be full or more millionaires.)

As for your theory on Blizzard engineering the markets for personal profit, lol, don't make me laugh; they've already openly said they have controls available to positively influence if needed. The growth / decays you are seeing are natural, simply supply and demand; and that's why you were linked a damned Wiki article.

 

[Madcatz]

Prices are not high at all on my Server there avg price is around 22k-25k max sense the release so thinking or sugesting that blizz is buy them LOL GTFO

 

[Macatho]

Well I think you're fucking rude. But hey, we're all welcome to our own opinions.

Come patch 6.2, demand will increase *for everything*.

People will be returning to the game after breaks (Heroic, Mythic raiders, casuals) -everyone and their mum will be returning to 6.2 on launch because of reasons. So there's now the Token, great, those people can now have the option to get game time via Gold. Demand. This will increase the Token price and Supply will eventually bring the cost down, but there will be a spike. Just as there is a spike every weekly Reset/lockout in EU.

And yes of course there will be new gear on the market, and people will spending gold on it and -more importantly -people will be buying Boosts. (My guild will be full or more millionaires.)

As for your theory on Blizzard engineering the markets for personal profit, lol, don't make me laugh; they've already openly said they have controls available to positively influence if needed. The growth / decays you are seeing are natural, simply supply and demand; and that's why you were linked a damned Wiki article.

We'll see.

 

[webhond]

theres no prediction to be made on that.. /FailFish

 

[Altard]

And by ignorant you mean basing the idea of actual experience as a gold seller? It's not like I'm pulling these numbers out of a tin foil magic hat.

And yes Demand might shift into less static and actually diminish because people will favor buying that ilvl 730 item over purchasing a wow token.

You don't really need to bringing behavioral analysis for this problem, you might have heard the phrasing "supply and demand" since you were a child and somewhere along the way thought "hmm its probably wrong since I've heard it for so long and its so simple, it must be more complex than that". Well sadly, it is not. The basis for all commerce is supply and demand. Behavioral analysis does not focus on demand and supply but focus on the basis behind "demand". What increases/decreases demand etc...

So a quick behavioral analysis for demand in 6.2 would simple be, excuse my phrasing: "I want dat gear now!".

In the end I am simply basing this theory on the FACT that I get a 100-200% increase in customers that want/need wow gold when there's shit to spend said gold on.

Price for tokens when writing this is roughly 45k on prime time and 35k on down time for EU servers. For US servers it is lower because of obvious reason having to do with supply and demand...again...

Also, linking me the wikipedia of "Heuristics in judgment and decision-making" is fucking rude, and I don't want to bring this post down to name calling and insulting.

I love you bro.

You make selling gold so easy and profitable and because of people like you it will always be easy and profitable. You just purely emphasized the definition of the wikipedia page I linked to you.

In psychology, heuristics are simple, efficient rules which people often use to form judgments and make decisions. They are mental shortcuts that usually involve focusing on one aspect of a complex problem and ignoring others.

Keep ignoring all those other things and focus SOLELY on supply and demand. It makes it easier for others to profit even more.





Also as an edit im curious. What was your reason for this post? You seem pretty positive you know what WoW tokens will do and you're slinging around your 'facts' left and right. What was the purpose of this thread. To gloat? To have a thread you can go back on in the off chance you were right a month or two from now and be like "aww yea im the man"?

Or maybe just maybe you're unsure if you're right or not, but your arrogance is blinding you from looking at a problem from another angle.

You could also say your thread's purpose was to collect opinions from others about this. However if that was the case, why bash the opinions you get?

Or maybe there wasn't a large enough supply of threads so you wanted to appeal to the demand~!

 

[Macatho]

I love you bro.

You make selling gold so easy and profitable and because of people like you it will always be easy and profitable. You just purely emphasized the definition of the wikipedia page I linked to you.

In psychology, heuristics are simple, efficient rules which people often use to form judgments and make decisions. They are mental shortcuts that usually involve focusing on one aspect of a complex problem and ignoring others.

Keep ignoring all those other things and focus SOLELY on supply and demand. It makes it easier for others to profit even more.

I know it's easy and profitable to sell gold, what does that have to do with anything? There is always a tipping point where it is not profitable anymore, if tokens increase in price to the chinese levels or vietnamese levels it will not be profitable for anyone that lives in the US or western europe. But it's always easy sitting on a forum insulting people trying to do a prediction. Even though you are insulting someone who have probably made 100x the amount of money you have made off botting and selling gold.

 

[Macatho]

I love you bro.

You make selling gold so easy and profitable and because of people like you it will always be easy and profitable. You just purely emphasized the definition of the wikipedia page I linked to you.

In psychology, heuristics are simple, efficient rules which people often use to form judgments and make decisions. They are mental shortcuts that usually involve focusing on one aspect of a complex problem and ignoring others.

Keep ignoring all those other things and focus SOLELY on supply and demand. It makes it easier for others to profit even more.





Also as an edit im curious. What was your reason for this post? You seem pretty positive you know what WoW tokens will do and you're slinging around your 'facts' left and right. What was the purpose of this thread. To gloat? To have a thread you can go back on in the off chance you were right a month or two from now and be like "aww yea im the man"?

Or maybe just maybe you're unsure if you're right or not, but your arrogance is blinding you from looking at a problem from another angle.

You could also say your thread's purpose was to collect opinions from others about this. However if that was the case, why bash the opinions you get?

Or maybe there wasn't a large enough supply of threads so you wanted to appeal to the demand~!

My point with the post was to hear other people's input, not getting linked to "you're a retard" wikipedia pages...

 

[nooblet]

I just made popcorn.

 

[Aion]

So 6.2 is around the corner, which brings new gear -but more importantly, stuff to spend gold on. I've seen a 100%-200% increase in customers each time a new raid tier is released which should be reflected exactly the same with WoW tokens.

So this will either confirm or deny that blizzard is buying Tokens themselves to keep prices high (i.e selling gold like any gold seller). I suspect we will at least see a 30% drop in token price 1-2 weeks into 6.2.

Even after I always appreciate your thoughts and your posts in general, this time they have a small but very dramatic error - the WoW Tokens market DO NOT follows the supply&demand marketing model. This is a market, actually dictated and moderated by Blizzard instead.

The moderation is indeed very poorly obscured by Blizzard Entertainment, so anyone with at least 1 brain cell can get it. Wowtoken.info screenshots follows:

You can see in the US diagram how the price was "following" linear graphics in the first 14 days, which they changed after the tons of complains on the official forums about the dictated price. They slowly adopted - with the visual graphics, and wider "change" with the highest/lowest cap, which used to be bracketed from 20-21k to 23-24k in the first weeks, then seen higher amplitudes in the last 10 days, from 18k to 27k.

On the EU market they obviously corrected the US mistakes, but narrowed the amplitudes by increasing the lowest cap a lot in the last week.

On Wowtoken.info you can see the start of Wow Token markets for the three Asian regions: Taiwanese, Chinese and Korean realms.

There their marketing is intending to dry-out all the realms off the stockpiled gold for dramatic gold prices per US $15-20 (Varies per region) valued WoW Token:

 

[nooblet]

Woah

 

[Macatho]

@Aion My point exactly, blizzard is basically just selling gold. If every second or third token that "sells" on battle.net is gold generated from blizzard and not from some farmer buying a game time token...

I wonder if blizzard creating the gold will cancel out the gold inflation from botfarms. Or generate more inflation.

 

[Aion]

@Aion My point exactly, blizzard is basically just selling gold. If every second or third token that "sells" on battle.net is gold generated from blizzard and not from some farmer buying a game time token...

I wonder if blizzard creating the gold will cancel out the gold inflation from botfarms. Or generate more inflation.

I cant see why this model would work for Blizzard? That way they could get backfired?

 

[Macatho]

I cant see why this model would work for Blizzard? That way they could get backfired?

Dont understand what you mean Aion. You say in your previous post that it's obvious that blizzard is tampering with supply and demand. Only way to do that is basically by buying the tokens themselves. Since they guarantee that the token will sell in 2-4 hours...